The World Bank forecasts a growth of 3.5% for Ukraine’s economy in 2023 and 4.0% in 2024 (compared to the previous expectations of 2.0% and 3.5% respectively in June).
This is indicated in the forecast for developing countries in Europe and Central Asia.
As stated in the forecast, Ukraine’s economic prospects, as before, depend on the anticipated duration of the Russian invasion.
“According to the approximate scenario, in which active hostilities continue until mid-2024, it is expected that the GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2023 and by 4% in 2024,” the report states.
The World Bank predicts that from the end of 2024, Ukraine’s economy will recover at a faster pace. This is attributed to state investments in the wake of revitalized renewable and export activities.
Despite the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s economy demonstrates signs of moderate recovery, aided by more reliable electricity supply and steady receipt of foreign aid, which supports public demand.
Following a contraction of 29.1% in 2022, Ukraine’s economy has gained from improved power supply, the localization of active combat, and more reliable receipt of foreign aid, allowing for a resumption of growth, as stated in the overview. Ukraine’s GDP has begun to recover, with positive growth recorded for the first time after the Russian invasion in the second quarter of 2023. This was facilitated by government consumption and a moderate recovery in supply in sectors related to supporting the military economy, as well as those benefiting from improved electricity supply.
Source: AgroPortal